- Regierungsschließung bis zum 1. Oktober?1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Congress passed and President Trump signed a bipartisan continuing resolution (H.R. 6500) on September 1-2, 2026, extending current federal funding levels through December 11 and eliminating the October 1 appropriations deadline as a trigger for a lapse. Both parties prioritized avoiding a pre-midterm shutdown after prior funding gaps, advancing the clean stopgap measure well ahead of the fiscal year-end with broad support in the Senate (90-6) and House (370-48). No full-year FY2027 appropriations bills have completed, but the enacted CR provides statutory authority for agencies to operate uninterrupted. Trader consensus at 98.7% for no shutdown reflects this enacted extension; only unforeseen legal or procedural reversals before October 1 could alter the outcome, though none appear plausible.