- Frankreich ruft bis zum 31. Oktober 2026 den Belagerungszustand (Kriegsrecht) aus?<1¢
- Frankreich ruft bis zum 15. November 2026 den Belagerungszustand (Kriegsrecht) aus?2¢
- Frankreich ruft bis zum 31. Dezember 2026 den Belagerungszustand (Kriegsrecht) aus?7¢
France faces significant social unrest following nationwide protests on October 17, 2026, against rising living costs, education conditions, and budget measures, which escalated into riots involving arson, looting, and clashes that injured over 500 officers and led to nearly 2,000 arrests. President Emmanuel Macron and Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez have emphasized prosecution of violent actors while explicitly stating no plans to invoke a state of emergency, relying instead on standard policing and judicial responses. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has attributed the violence to far-left groups and opportunists ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Macron’s scheduled national address and ongoing crisis cabinet meetings represent immediate focal points, with traders monitoring any escalation in protests or policy shifts that could alter the threshold for exceptional measures.
Regeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.