- Fed-Zinssenkung bis zur Sitzung im September 2026?2¢
- Zinssenkung der Fed bis zur Sitzung im Oktober 2026?5¢
- Fed-Zinssenkung bis zur Sitzung im Dezember 2026?13¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Persistent above-target inflation near 3.4% headline CPI and elevated core readings, reinforced by Middle East energy shocks and tariff effects, has anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range after the July FOMC meeting. With the effective rate at 3.63% and three dissents favoring a hike, trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts assigns only low single-digit probabilities to a cut by the September or October meetings and roughly 13% by December. Resilient GDP growth, stable unemployment around 4.1%, and solid job gains continue to outweigh recent softer nonfarm payrolls and retail sales. Key near-term catalysts include the August CPI and employment releases, the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections, and any further geopolitical developments that could shift inflation or growth trajectories.