- Will Trump resign before 2027?1¢1 %
Recent Republican midterm losses have fueled speculation from analysts like Nate Silver about potential isolation in a divided Congress, yet the 98.7% trader consensus on "No" aligns with Trump's repeated commitments to finish his term, recent medical reports confirming excellent health and fitness for duty, and the absence of any resignation signals, scandals, or 25th Amendment triggers. Historical precedent shows presidents rarely resign absent extreme circumstances like Nixon's, and no primary-source developments indicate otherwise before 2027. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, major legal reversals, or unforeseen crises, though current evidence supports continuity through the period.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.