- Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?1¢1 %
US military operations in Venezuela have centered on targeted actions against drug networks and the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro rather than large-scale ground invasion. Recent developments include ongoing Status of Forces Agreement negotiations led by the State Department for potential long-term troop activities such as training and exercises, alongside a late-October 2026 strike on an ELN camp in Apure state involving US drones and Venezuelan forces. Naval deployments under Operation Southern Spear continue to support interdiction efforts, while oil revenue management and political transition talks proceed with the interim government. These steps, combined with congressional oversight following recent Senate elections, shape trader assessments of escalation risks within any specified resolution window.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.