- Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?8¢8 %
- Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?28¢28 %
- 1 %8 %November 3013 t $ vol.
- 1 %28,5 %December 3120,1 t $ vol.
Russian forces have intensified infiltration tactics and strikes near Bilozerske in Donetsk Oblast, part of broader pressure in the Dobropillya direction north of Pokrovsk. Small assault groups have reached outskirts, treelines, and at least one building inside the settlement, with Russian milbloggers claiming flank advances and positions as of early November 2026. Ukrainian units, including the Rubizh Brigade, report active clearing operations that have removed infiltrators and prevented encirclement, while denying Russian claims of control. The city has suffered extensive artillery, drone, and guided bomb damage, accelerating civilian evacuation. ISW assessments continue to treat Russian claims as unconfirmed without map shading indicating assessed control or gains inside municipal boundaries. These dynamics—persistent but limited Russian probes against effective Ukrainian defensive responses—support the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing for resolution by December 31.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Bilozerske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.532023° N, 37.058608° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.