- Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?16¢16 %
- 2 %3,2 %December 3164,5 t $ vol.
- 16 %March 31, 202779,9 t $ vol.
Russian forces have pursued incremental advances toward Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka northwest of Kostyantynivka as part of broader operations aimed at Druzhkivka and the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk axis in Donetsk Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed limited gains in the western part of the settlement in late October 2026, yet the Institute for the Study of War assessed no confirmed progress amid continued offensive operations. Ukrainian counterattacks near Oleksandrivka since early 2026 have compelled Russia to redirect marine infantry units and elements of the 90th Tank Division—originally intended for the Druzhkivka direction—toward defensive tasks, contributing to net Russian territorial losses across the theater in October. Russian infiltration efforts remain active but face Ukrainian defensive pressure, with no major scheduled events immediately altering the local balance.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka1.png Location in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka2.png Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZH4QxaEkdvhuK7xN9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.