- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30, 2026?9¢9 %
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?21¢21 %
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by March 31, 2027?40¢40 %
- 5 %9 %November 304,3 t $ vol.
- 9 %21 %December 3196,3 t $ vol.
- 3 %40 %March 31, 202719 t $ vol.
Russian forces have sustained their highest-intensity offensive operations of the current phase toward Dobropillia in Donetsk Oblast since July 2026, committing substantial elements of the 41st Combined Arms Army, 90th Tank Division units, naval infantry, and roughly one-third of elite Rubikon drone forces to small-group infiltrations and assaults averaging around 30 attacks per day. Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed full seizure of the city on October 16, but Ukrainian commands including the 1st Azov Corps and General Staff rejected the assertion as disinformation, stating that Ukrainian units retain control and that reported gains remain limited to unconsolidated infiltrations in southern sectors and nearby settlements. Independent assessments indicate marginal Russian progress without firm positions inside Dobropillia itself, amid Ukrainian counteractions and resource reallocations elsewhere along the front. The direction remains a priority for forming the southern flank of pressure on the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive belt, with winter fighting and potential Ukrainian responses likely to shape further developments.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Intersection Location in Dobropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia1-6bc31d8213.png Dobropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Dobropillia%202-daa3abcc03.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/GzbpmgPN3LpxzvrcA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.