- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?7¢7 %
Iranian lawmakers have registered multiple proposals for NPT withdrawal amid ongoing tensions with the United States and Israel, including calls from hardline factions and some broader parliamentary support following 2025-2026 conflicts and IAEA resolutions. Senior officials, however, including members of the Supreme National Security Council, have described such a step as not an immediate priority, with the government maintaining its official stance against nuclear weapons development and continued treaty membership. Ongoing Qatari-mediated diplomacy and internal reviews of nuclear proposals further signal preference for negotiation over exit. These factors sustain trader consensus around a 93% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, reflecting the procedural barriers, need for highest-level consensus, and three-month notice requirement under NPT Article X.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.