- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?19¢19 %
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?23¢23 %
- 3,5 %December 31, 2026315,1 t $ vol.
- 18,5 %December 31, 202792,5 t $ vol.
- 2 %23 %December 31, 202867,6 t $ vol.
OpenAI’s September 2026 announcement of an AI-generated claim resolving key statements in the Navier-Stokes equations has become the central catalyst shaping trader views, with the Clay Mathematics Institute quickly labeling the problem “Active” while noting the result appears settled. CMI’s deliberate, unhurried rules require peer-reviewed publication, broad community acceptance, and at least two years post-publication before any prize consideration, creating a long verification runway that has kept official declaration odds modest. Partial AI claims on problems such as Yang-Mills and the Hodge conjecture add further uncertainty but fall short of triggering a full Millennium Prize. Traders are watching the pace of independent scrutiny and any formal publications that could accelerate or delay CMI’s timeline through 2027–2028.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.