- Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?41¢41 %
- Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?36¢36 %
- Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?29¢29 %
- Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?24¢24 %
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?21¢21 %
- Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?20¢20 %
- Will Stephen Miller leave the Trump administration before 2027?18¢18 %
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027?14¢14 %
- Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?13¢13 %
- Will Russell Vought leave the Trump administration before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will Tom Homan leave the Trump administration before 2027?12¢12 %
- 12 %40,5 %Pete Hegseth206,7 t $ vol.
- 7 %35,5 %Susie Wiles82,4 t $ vol.
- 1 %28,9 %Kristi Noem102,5 t $ vol.
- 23,5 %Markwayne Mullin3,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %20,5 %Howard Lutnick117,2 t $ vol.
1 %20 %Kash Patel326,2 t $ vol.- 18 %Stephen Miller22,5 t $ vol.
- 5 %14 %Robert F. Kennedy Jr.100,3 t $ vol.
- 12 %13 %Marco Rubio188,8 t $ vol.
- 7 %12 %Russell Vought2 t $ vol.
- 1 %11,5 %Lee Zeldin35 t $ vol.
- 9 %11,5 %Tom Homan2,8 t $ vol.
The recent Republican midterm losses have intensified speculation about further departures from the second Trump administration, with attention focused on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth amid criticism of his handling of the Iran conflict and related military guidance. Earlier in 2026, several cabinet-level officials exited, including Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem through firings, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer under pressure, and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard by resignation, often tied to performance reviews, investigations, or policy tensions. Trump has publicly stated no immediate plans for broad changes, while officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio have dismissed exit rumors tied to future political ambitions. These patterns reflect ongoing questions about cabinet stability through the end of 2026, influenced by legislative priorities, confirmation dynamics, and internal accountability pressures.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.