- Will Together be in the next Israeli government?71¢71 %
- Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?71¢71 %
- Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?68¢68 %
- Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?63¢63 %
- Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?47¢47 %
- Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?33¢33 %
- Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?22¢22 %
- Will Likud be in the next Israeli government?20¢20 %
- Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?19¢19 %
- Will Otzma Yehudit be in the next Israeli government?11¢11 %
- Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government?5¢5 %
- Will Noam be in the next Israeli government?3¢3 %
2 %71 %Together28,4 t $ vol.
7 %71 %Yashar26,3 t $ vol.
25 %68 %Yisrael Beiteinu12,8 t $ vol.
21 %62,5 %The Democrats13,7 t $ vol.- 2 %47 %United Torah Judaism29,7 t $ vol.
2 %33 %Ra'am44 t $ vol.
3 %22 %Shas43,4 t $ vol.
14 %20 %Likud41,6 t $ vol.
5 %19 %RZP-Zehut27,3 t $ vol.
4 %11 %Otzma Yehudit32,7 t $ vol.- 1 %5,3 %Joint List16,6 t $ vol.
3,4 %Noam16,2 t $ vol.
Post-election results from October 27 left neither bloc with a Knesset majority, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led group secured 53 seats while Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar-centered opposition bloc took 48; Arab parties reached a record 19 seats combined. President Isaac Herzog’s consultations with party leaders, including recent endorsements favoring Eisenkot from 67 lawmakers and United Torah Judaism’s withdrawal of support for Netanyahu, set the stage for mandate assignment expected shortly. Coalition talks hinge on whether Eisenkot can secure backing from centrist, right-wing, or Arab parties for a minority arrangement, or if a unity government emerges amid mutual vetoes, with the new Knesset convening November 10. These negotiations directly shape which parties enter the governing coalition.
Regler
Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.