- Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?34¢34 %
- Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?21¢21 %
- Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?19¢19 %
- Will the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?16¢16 %
- Will the Riemann Hypothesis be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?3¢3 %
- Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?1¢1 %
- 33,5 %No solution by Dec 31, 2027110,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %20,9 %Yang-Mills38,7 t $ vol.
- 19 %Hodge Conjecture91 t $ vol.
- 1 %16 %Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer41,6 t $ vol.
- 3,4 %Riemann Hypothesis26,4 t $ vol.
- 1,4 %P versus NP16,8 t $ vol.
Trader consensus on the Millennium Prize Problems shows significant uncertainty, with no solution by the end of 2027 carrying the highest implied probability at 33.5%. This positioning stems from the foundational complexity of these conjectures and the current gap between large language model capabilities in pattern recognition versus the rigorous proof generation required. Yang-Mills at 20.8% and Hodge Conjecture at 18.5% lead specific outcomes due to their connections to physics simulations and algebraic geometry, where emerging AI techniques in symbolic reasoning and automated verification show incremental progress. Lower odds on Riemann Hypothesis (3.4%) and P versus NP (1.4%) reflect their deep ties to number theory and computational complexity, domains with fewer demonstrated AI breakthroughs. Key upcoming catalysts include new model releases and mathematical benchmarks that could alter sentiment.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.