- Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?44¢44 %
- Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?32¢32 %
- Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?11¢11 %
- Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?3¢3 %
- Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?<1¢<1 %
8 %44 %None in 202631,9 t $ vol.
1 %32,2 %Google18,2 t $ vol.
1 %11 %Anthropic24,5 t $ vol.
2,9 %OpenAI16,7 t $ vol.
0,5 %xAI10,7 t $ vol.
Google’s recent Gemini 4 Carbon and Argon releases have propelled its models to the top of the Chatbot Arena Elo leaderboard at around 1530–1538 as of mid-November 2026, outpacing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.2 variants (near 1503–1513) and OpenAI’s GPT-6 series. No frontier large language model has yet crossed the 1550 threshold on the human-preference Elo rating, and the remaining six weeks of 2026 leave limited runway for another major capability jump. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to “none in 2026,” with Google holding the clearest path among listed companies if incremental scaling or post-training advances close the gap before year-end.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market. If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026". If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.