- Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?76¢76 %
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?11¢11 %
- Will Google have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?7¢7 %
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?5¢5 %
- Will Microsoft have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Amazon have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will MiniMax have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
- Will Thinky have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
- Will StepFun have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
76 %Anthropic4,1 t $ vol.
3 %10,5 %OpenAI2,7 t $ vol.
1 %6,5 %Google699,4 $ vol.
1 %5,2 %Xiaomi334,1 $ vol.
4,4 %Microsoft295,6 $ vol.
1 %4,3 %Z.ai369,4 $ vol.
4,3 %Amazon275,7 $ vol.
2 %3,8 %MiniMax494,9 $ vol.
3 %1,2 %SpaceXAI290,5 $ vol.
2 %1,2 %Thinky360,5 $ vol.
0,7 %StepFun275,8 $ vol.
0,6 %DeepSeek261,5 $ vol.
Anthropic holds a strong lead in the market at 72% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5 models topping or ranking near the top on multiple LiveBench coding evaluations and related benchmarks like Terminal-Bench through November 2026. These large language models show consistent advantages in code generation, agentic workflows, and long-horizon tasks compared with OpenAI's GPT-6 variants and Google Gemini releases. Recent official model updates and demonstrated capabilities in coding-specific tests have reinforced trader consensus on Anthropic's edge. With roughly seven weeks until resolution, further releases or benchmark refreshes could shift outcomes, though Anthropic's current positioning reflects aggregated real-money sentiment on sustained performance.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”