- Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?63¢63 %
- Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?25¢25 %
- Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will Thinky have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?3¢3 %
- Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?3¢3 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?1¢1 %
- Will Xiaomi have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?<1¢<1 %
12 %63 %Google6,4 t $ vol.
8 %24,5 %Anthropic6,5 t $ vol.
5,4 %OpenAI488,4 $ vol.
3,5 %Thinky1,2 t $ vol.
4 %2,6 %Meta722,3 $ vol.
1 %2,1 %SpaceXAI551,1 $ vol.
1,8 %Alibaba436,7 $ vol.
1 %1,5 %Z.ai691,6 $ vol.
1,1 %Mistral700,7 $ vol.
0,8 %Xiaomi651,2 $ vol.
0,8 %DeepSeek471,5 $ vol.
2 %0,8 %Microsoft1,7 t $ vol.
Google leads the market-implied odds at 62.5% for holding the top AI model by end of January, reflecting trader consensus on its recent Gemini 4 series momentum. The Gemini 4 Carbon variant has posted strong benchmark gains in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks since late October releases, supported by Google's vast compute resources, data integration, and rapid iteration cadence. Anthropic trails at 24.5% despite Claude Fable 5.2 currently topping many independent leaderboards, as traders anticipate Google closing the gap through scale advantages and product updates. Lower probabilities for OpenAI and others highlight expectations that frontier progress will favor labs with broader infrastructure and distribution. Key catalysts include potential December model drops and January benchmark refreshes that could shift the competitive landscape.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".