- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be less than $1,115,000 on December 31?50¢50 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?23¢23 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,126,000 and $1,137,000 on December 31?12¢12 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,137,000 and $1,148,000 on December 31?10¢10 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,148,000 and $1,159,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,159,000 and $1,168,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be at least $1,168,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- 5 %49,5 %<$1.115M17,9 t $ vol.
- 6 %23,1 %$1.115M - $1.126M10,1 t $ vol.
- 2 %12 %$1.126M - $1.137M6,5 t $ vol.
- 3 %9,9 %$1.137M - $1.148M3,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %$1.148M - $1.159M4,3 t $ vol.
- 0,8 %$1.159M - $1.168M4,1 t $ vol.
- 0,7 %$1.168M+2,4 t $ vol.
Recent data through September and October 2026 show LA Metro median home values and sale prices clustered between roughly $915,000 and $1.05 million, with Zillow’s typical value near $950,000 and only modest year-over-year gains or flat-to-down readings amid elevated inventory, more price cuts, and slower sales. Higher mortgage rates near 7% and affordability constraints have capped buyer demand, keeping values below the $1.115 million threshold that currently carries a 49% market-implied probability. With just weeks remaining until year-end and no major catalysts expected to drive a sharp late surge, trader positioning reflects the limited upside risk in the near term while acknowledging potential seasonal or rate-driven volatility.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Los Angeles Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Los Angeles Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900078). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1900 square feet, which is the median home size in the Los Angeles Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/56)