- Will the median home value in NYC be less than $445,000 on December 31?44¢44 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?32¢32 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $458,000 and $471,000 on December 31?26¢26 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $471,000 and $484,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $484,000 and $497,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be between $497,000 and $510,000 on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will the median home value in NYC be at least $510,000 on December 31?3¢3 %
- 13 %43,7 %<$445K10,3 t $ vol.
- 7 %31,5 %$445K - $458K15,7 t $ vol.
- 11 %25,8 %$458K - $471K5 t $ vol.
- 1,7 %$471K - $484K4,2 t $ vol.
- 1,5 %$484K - $497K7,3 t $ vol.
- 0,2 %$497K - $510K5,2 t $ vol.
- 2 %3,5 %$510K+5,4 t $ vol.
Recent New York City housing data show modest year-over-year gains in some borough medians alongside flat-to-lower listings in others, with overall sale prices clustering between $750K and $900K depending on the metric. Elevated mortgage rates near 7% continue to weigh on buyer demand and affordability, supporting trader consensus for year-end median home values near the $445K level. The near-even split between sub-$445K and $445K-$458K outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether softening inventory or persistent supply constraints will produce a final-quarter dip or stabilization. Key upcoming releases on Q4 sales volume and any shifts in Treasury yields or Fed policy could tilt probabilities before resolution.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in New York City, New York on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for New York City (Parcl_ID: 5372594). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1000 square feet, which is the median home size in New York City. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/58)