- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31?4¢4 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?7¢7 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $308,000 and $313,000 on December 31?6¢6 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $313,000 and $318,000 on December 31?35¢35 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?43¢43 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $323,000 and $327,000 on December 31?11¢11 %
- Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be at least $327,000 on December 31?4¢4 %
- 1 %3,5 %<$303K2,7 t $ vol.
- 7 %$303K - $308K4,9 t $ vol.
- 3 %5,6 %$308K - $313K1,4 t $ vol.
- 5 %35 %$313K - $318K12,5 t $ vol.
- 9 %42,5 %$318K - $323K12,6 t $ vol.
- 8 %10,5 %$323K - $327K5 t $ vol.
- 4 %$327K+8 t $ vol.
Trader sentiment for Chicago metro median home values on December 31, 2026, centers on resilient year-over-year price gains amid persistently tight inventory, with the closely matched $318K–$323K (42.4%) and $313K–$318K (35.0%) ranges reflecting uncertainty over the extent of typical seasonal softening. Recent data show median list prices near $359K–$395K through late 2026, supported by limited active listings and 4–7% annual appreciation in indices such as Case-Shiller, even as 30-year mortgage rates hover near 7.4%. Forecasts from DePaul’s Institute for Housing Studies highlight an expected autumn decline of roughly 4–6% from summer peaks due to fewer transactions and mix shifts, while slight metro job weakness and moderating population growth introduce downside risks. With resolution weeks away, the narrow spread between leading outcomes underscores how fresh housing data or rate movements could shift implied probabilities within these adjacent bins.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago Metro, IL on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago Metro, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago Metro. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/62)