- Will Labor win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?94¢94 %
- Will One Nation win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?6¢6 %
- Will Greens win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Liberal–National win the second-most seats in the next Victorian state election?<1¢<1 %
3 %93,5 %Labor8,8 t $ vol.
4 %6,2 %One Nation4,3 t $ vol.
6 %0,7 %Greens2,1 t $ vol.
2 %0,4 %Liberal–National3,2 t $ vol.
Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal-National Coalition maintaining a consistent two-party preferred lead over Labor of roughly eight to ten points heading into the 28 November Victorian state election. Labor’s primary vote has remained near 22 percent while the Coalition holds around 31 percent and One Nation sits near 22 percent, with preferences continuing to favor the Coalition in head-to-head matchups. These trends have reinforced trader expectations that the Coalition will secure the most seats, leaving Labor positioned as the primary opposition party. One Nation’s elevated primary support has not translated into comparable odds for second place, and minor parties remain at low implied probabilities consistent with historical patterns of preference flows in Victorian Legislative Assembly contests.
Regler
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria. This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the second-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties. Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).