- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be less than 1.5%?8¢8 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?5¢5 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?14¢14 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?14¢14 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?16¢16 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 3.5% and 4.0%?10¢10 %
- Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?14¢14 %
- 8 %<1.5%6,8 t $ vol.
- 13 %5,4 %1.5% to 2.0%4,9 t $ vol.
- 2 %14 %2.0% to 2.5%3,4 t $ vol.
- 4 %14,5 %2.5% to 3.0%3,8 t $ vol.
- 7 %15,5 %3.0% to 3.5%6,1 t $ vol.
- 3 %9,5 %3.5% to 4.0%2,9 t $ vol.
- 1 %13,5 %≥4.0%3,7 t $ vol.
Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q4 2026 stand at 3.4% annualized, following Q3's 3.4% print, with strong business investment in AI-related capex and resilient consumer spending underpinning the near-term outlook. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around the 2.5-3.5% ranges because elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% and a potential December FOMC rate hike introduce downside risks to growth, while solid labor market data (4.1% unemployment, 165k payroll gains) support upside scenarios. Traders price in uncertainty from moderating forecasts, geopolitical oil pressures, and inventory dynamics that could shift the outcome between the leading buckets. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming employment reports, GDPNow revisions, and final Q4 data releases.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled for January 28, 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.