- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in November?3¢3 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in November?2¢2 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in November?7¢7 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in November?47¢47 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in November?24¢24 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in November?27¢27 %
- Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in November?3¢3 %
- 3,4 %<40.01,1 t $ vol.
- 1,7 %40.0 to 42.9887,3 $ vol.
- 12 %6,5 %43.0 to 45.95,7 t $ vol.
- 9 %46,5 %46.0 to 48.934,5 t $ vol.
- 7 %23,9 %49.0 to 51.93,6 t $ vol.
- 23 %27,4 %52.0 to 54.91,4 t $ vol.
- 3,4 %55.0+658,9 $ vol.
Recent economic pressures, particularly persistent inflation driven by energy price shocks from the Iran conflict and elevated borrowing costs following the Federal Reserve's September rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% range, continue to weigh on the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. October's final reading held steady at 48.0, with year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.7% and long-run expectations at 3.5%, reflecting ongoing concerns over purchasing power and durable goods affordability. The November 6 preliminary release carries a consensus estimate of 47.5 amid these headwinds, even as the October jobs report showed resilient hiring of 165,000 positions and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Trader-implied odds favor the 46.0-48.9 range at 53.5% because recent prints have clustered near these levels, with inflation and real income erosion outweighing labor market strength. Key near-term catalysts include the October CPI release and any shifts in monetary policy expectations.
Regler
This is a market about the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for November 2026, as reported by the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. This market will resolve to the bracket containing the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for November 2026, as reported in the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release. The resolution source for this market will be the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers final release for November 2026 (https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/), currently scheduled to be released on November 20, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: This market resolves based only on the final results for the specified month; preliminary results will not be considered. Note: University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is reported to one decimal point (e.g., 44.8). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the University of Michigan does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Surveys of Consumers report. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.