- Trump out as President before 2027?3¢3 %
As the 2026 midterm cycle concludes and the presidential term extends through early 2027, traders assign overwhelming probability to Donald Trump remaining in office due to the absence of active impeachment proceedings, cabinet-level invocation of the 25th Amendment, or verified health developments that would trigger succession. Senate and House majorities show no immediate appetite for removal votes, while historical patterns indicate such processes require months of sustained bipartisan support rarely achieved this late in a term. Upcoming congressional sessions and any lame-duck period before January 2027 offer limited windows for procedural shifts, yet no confirmed legislative or judicial triggers have materialized. Late-breaking events such as acute medical incidents, unforeseen scandals prompting resignation, or rapid coalition realignments in Congress remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the resolution date.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.