- Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?93¢93 %
- Will PT win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?4¢4 %
- Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?3¢3 %
- Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?3¢3 %
- Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?3¢3 %
- Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 Tabasco Congress election?2¢2 %
6 %92,5 %Morena6,6 t $ vol.
2 %4,2 %PT787,1 $ vol.
2 %3,3 %PAN744,6 $ vol.
1 %3,3 %PVEM283,4 $ vol.
2,8 %MC624 $ vol.
3 %2 %PRI369,8 $ vol.
Morena maintains a commanding lead in the Tabasco state congress election at 93% implied probability, driven by its entrenched local organization and repeated majorities in recent legislative contests across the state's districts. Projections from recent polling and vote-share estimates show the party capturing over 60% support and the majority of seats, consistent with its dominance in the southeastern region. Smaller parties such as PT, PRI, PAN, and MC trail with single-digit shares and limited projected representation. Potential challenges include coordinated opposition alliances or unusually high turnout among non-Morena voters in remaining districts, though current margins indicate significant barriers to altering the outcome.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 35 members of the Congress of the State of Tabasco are scheduled to take place on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of the State of Tabasco as a result of this election. Parties will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party's list in the proportional representation vote, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats will be attributed to the political party under which each elected deputy is officially registered in the final results published by the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco. For district (mayoría relativa) seats won by a coalition or common candidacy, the seat will count toward the party to which the elected deputy is assigned in the official results, pursuant to the coalition agreement registered with the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco, and not toward the coalition as a whole. Proportional representation seats will count toward the party to which they are allocated. Subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the governments of Tabasco and Mexico, including the Instituto Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Tabasco (https://www.iepct.org.mx/).