- Will PSOE win fewer than 96 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?8¢8 %
- Will PSOE win 96-101 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?7¢7 %
- Will PSOE win 102-107 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?22¢22 %
- Will PSOE win 108-113 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?26¢26 %
- Will PSOE win 114-119 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?25¢25 %
- Will PSOE win 120 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?16¢16 %
- 2 %7,5 %<961,8 t $ vol.
- 3 %7,5 %96-1011,1 t $ vol.
- 4 %22 %102-1073,6 t $ vol.
- 6 %25,5 %108-113855,4 $ vol.
- 1 %24,5 %114-119843,6 $ vol.
- 2 %15,5 %120+2,3 t $ vol.
Recent polls project the PSOE at 25–27% nationally, placing it 3–5 points behind the PP while Vox holds around 19%. This produces seat estimates for the PSOE clustered between roughly 100 and 115 of the 350 seats under the D’Hondt method, consistent with the market’s concentration in the 102–119 brackets. A snap election called for 29 November after right-wing parties blocked housing decrees has framed the contest around affordability, yet persistent corruption investigations, left-wing fragmentation into the Broad Front, and a late-October train disaster have limited any sustained PSOE momentum. Regional variations, turnout among progressive voters, and residual volatility in the final three weeks keep multiple seat bands competitive, with traders assigning meaningful probability across the 102–119 range rather than converging on a single outcome. Further shifts in the housing debate, additional polling movement, or late campaign events could widen the distribution before voting concludes.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).