- Will PP win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?76¢76 %
- Will PSOE win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?17¢17 %
- Will Vox win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?1¢1 %
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Podemos win the most seats in Jaén in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
4 %75,5 %PP6,2 t $ vol.
17 %PSOE3,3 t $ vol.
2 %1,4 %Vox2,1 t $ vol.
0,7 %Broad Front (FA)982,5 $ vol.
0,6 %Podemos1,5 t $ vol.
PP leads trader pricing for the Jaén constituency in Spain’s November 29 general election, where five congressional seats are allocated under the d’Hondt method. Recent national and provincial polling averages place the Partido Popular ahead or tied locally with the PSOE, projecting a repeat of the prior seat distribution of two for PP, two for PSOE, and one for Vox. The right-wing bloc benefits from consolidated support amid voter concerns over housing costs, migration pressures, and governance scandals affecting the incumbent PSOE. Campaign activity began November 13, with PP messaging focused on national change and the left emphasizing social policies and turnout. Forecasts from multiple models show limited movement for smaller lists, including Frente Amplio and Podemos, consistent with their sub-threshold positioning in the province.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Jaén as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Jaén, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Jaén, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).