- Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?81¢81 %
- Will PP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?19¢19 %
- Will Vox win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?2¢2 %
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Podemos win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
1 %80,5 %PSOE6,7 t $ vol.
1 %18,5 %PP4,2 t $ vol.
1 %2,2 %Vox1,6 t $ vol.
0,3 %Broad Front (FA)1,7 t $ vol.
0,3 %Podemos4,9 t $ vol.
Recent polling averages place the center-right PP ahead of the PSOE by 3–4 points ahead of the November 29 vote, positioning the PP to secure the most seats while the PSOE remains the clearest contender for second. The snap election, called after the minority government lost parliamentary support for housing measures, has seen the left fragmented between the PSOE, Broad Front, and Podemos, limiting any single rival’s ability to challenge the PSOE for runner-up status. Vox trails in third place in nearly all surveys, and smaller regional or emerging lists show limited national reach. Trader pricing on the 2nd-place market reflects this consistent hierarchy, with the PSOE carrying the highest implied probability among outcomes.
Regler
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).