- SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027?22¢22 %
- SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?52¢52 %
- 2 %22 %June 30, 202724,9 t $ vol.
- 10 %52 %December 31, 202720,9 t $ vol.
SpaceX’s October 2026 acquisition of nationwide 800 MHz low-band spectrum and FCC approval for 15,000 next-generation V2 direct-to-cell satellites have accelerated trader views on its path to independent US carrier status. These moves address indoor coverage gaps and promise over 100x bandwidth versus the current ~650-satellite fleet, enabling a hybrid satellite-terrestrial 5G network that pairs Starlink’s orbital constellation with ground infrastructure. Recent Qualcomm Dragonwing agreements and reported talks for 80,000 cell sites plus potential Boost Mobile access support a target of early 2028 commercial service using its own spectrum. Major carriers continue rejecting MVNO deals, however, leaving SpaceX to fund a costly nationwide rollout amid regulatory and construction timelines.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX makes a mobile phone plan available for purchase in the United States between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “SpaceX” refers to the company known as SpaceX at market creation. Changes to the names or branding of SpaceX, its subsidiaries, acquired carriers, or their mobile services will not affect resolution. A mobile phone plan means a mobile service sold directly by SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls that gives the subscriber a U.S. phone number with voice calls, text messaging, and mobile data. Voice calls and text messaging available only through third-party internet applications will not satisfy these requirements. A qualifying plan may use SpaceX’s own network, another carrier’s network, or a combination of satellite and terrestrial networks. Plans offered by a carrier that SpaceX acquires a controlling interest in will count once the acquisition is completed and the plan satisfies all other requirements of these rules. Satellite services sold as an add-on to another carrier's plan, such as T-Mobile's T-Satellite, will not count. A mobile phone plan is available when members of the general public are able to purchase it directly from SpaceX or an entity it directly or indirectly controls and activate and begin using the required voice, text messaging, and mobile data services. Availability to customers in at least one U.S. state will qualify. Availability limited to customers outside the United States, internal or employee testing, waitlists, and invite-only programs will not qualify. Announcements, pre-orders, and deposits alone will not qualify; the mobile phone plan must be available by the deadline. Acquiring spectrum licenses or network assets, or obtaining regulatory approval, alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Starlink and SpaceX (including their official websites and https://x.com/Starlink, https://x.com/SpaceX); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.