- Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?35¢35 %
- Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?33¢33 %
- Will Meta be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?14¢14 %
- Will StepFun be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?5¢5 %
- Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Moonshot be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will ByteDance be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will MiniMax be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Z.ai be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will SpaceXAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Microsoft be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
6 %35 %Google10,7 t $ vol.
2 %33 %Anthropic11,8 t $ vol.
2 %14,4 %Meta2,8 t $ vol.
5 %StepFun817,5 $ vol.
4 %Alibaba458,4 $ vol.
4 %OpenAI450,4 $ vol.
3,9 %Moonshot700,5 $ vol.
3,6 %ByteDance587 $ vol.
1 %3,3 %MiniMax1,1 t $ vol.
2,8 %Z.ai547,1 $ vol.
2,1 %SpaceXAI550,5 $ vol.
1,9 %Microsoft519,1 $ vol.
Traders see a tightly contested field for second place in Text Arena Math by year-end, with Anthropic and Google tied at 30.5% implied probability and Meta at 23.8%. Recent large language model releases have shown incremental gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, keeping multiple labs within striking distance as capabilities remain closely matched. Competitive dynamics hinge on verifiable performance in complex problem-solving rather than marketing claims, with lower odds for OpenAI and Chinese developers reflecting current standings on established evaluations. Key upcoming catalysts include any model updates or third-party benchmark reports before December, which could alter the market consensus given how quickly technical edges shift in this space.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".