- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 3.9%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?>99¢>99 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?<1¢<1 %
- 82 %100 %4.1%15,3 t $ vol.
The market-implied odds place the highest probability on a 4.2% October unemployment rate, consistent with the September reading and the median economist forecast of 4.2% ahead of the BLS release. September nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000, well below expectations, with downward revisions to prior months and the unemployment rate edging up from 4.1% amid higher labor force participation rather than broad layoffs. ADP private payrolls of 86,000 for October and resilient job openings data have reinforced views of a stable but cooling labor market, with wage growth remaining contained around 3.0% year-over-year. This positioning aligns with the Federal Reserve’s focus on persistent inflation pressures above target, where the market-implied path prices limited near-term policy easing despite softer hiring trends.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.