- Nothing Ever Happens: 202688¢88 %
Traders see an 88% implied probability that nothing major occurs through the end of 2026, reflecting consensus on continued stability in U.S. governance and international relations. Recent weeks have featured routine legislative activity without major votes or executive actions that would alter trajectories, alongside steady diplomatic engagement on existing issues rather than new escalations. No significant polling shifts, court rulings, or coalition changes have emerged to disrupt expectations. This environment aligns with historical patterns of reduced volatility near year-end. Potential catalysts that could move odds include unexpected announcements on policy priorities, diplomatic summits, or agency decisions within the final weeks.
Regler
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf