- Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
Nicolás Maduro has remained in U.S. federal custody since his January 2026 capture by American forces during a raid on his Caracas residence, facing drug trafficking and additional torture-related charges in Manhattan federal court. He and his wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty during a November 9, 2026, appearance before a new judge following the prior presiding judge’s death, with their trial scheduled for mid-2027. Defense arguments center on head-of-state immunity and the legality of the extraterritorial operation, while prosecutors pursue a case carrying potential life sentences. Venezuelan transitional politics under acting leadership and any diplomatic negotiations could influence release timing or conditions ahead of resolution.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.