- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?8¢8 %
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?16¢16 %
- 4 %8 %November 3013,9 t $ vol.
- 1 %15,5 %December 3110,5 t $ vol.
Google's accelerated release cadence, with 16 Gemini-branded large language models launched or announced between July and late October 2026, drives trader sentiment on the next Gemini Pro model. The company skipped the planned Gemini 3.5 Pro entirely, as confirmed in September reporting, and instead advanced the Gemini 4 generation with Argon reaching general availability on October 13 for developers and paid users, followed by the stronger Carbon frontier model announced October 28 with initial limited access via the Fairwind Program. This shift prioritizes rapid iteration on capabilities in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity over traditional Pro naming, amid competition from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. Upcoming catalysts include broader Carbon rollout and potential efficient variants, though exact timelines for any new Pro-labeled release remain unspecified.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.