- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 2.50%?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.50% and 2.99%?2¢2 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?19¢19 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.50% and 3.99%?57¢57 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?20¢20 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.50% and 4.99%?3¢3 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 5.00% and 5.49%?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 5.50%?<1¢<1 %
- 0,2 %<2.50%2,3 t $ vol.
- 2,4 %2.50% to 2.99%5,9 t $ vol.
- 8 %19,1 %3.00% to 3.49%42,2 t $ vol.
- 4 %57,2 %3.50% to 3.99%15,2 t $ vol.
- 13 %20 %4.00% to 4.49%27,9 t $ vol.
- 1 %3,1 %4.50% to 4.99%6,2 t $ vol.
- 0,6 %5.00% to 5.49%3,7 t $ vol.
- 0,2 %5.50%+7,2 t $ vol.
Recent Mexico inflation data, including a September 2026 headline rate of 3.45% rising to 3.62% in mid-October amid non-core pressures, combined with analyst median forecasts of 3.88–3.90% for year-end 2026, anchor trader positioning toward the 3.50–3.99% range. Banxico’s November 5 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.25%—described as a one-time adjustment with an extended pause ahead—reflects persistent economic slack and limited demand-driven risks despite core inflation near 3.78%. Upward revisions to Q4 2026 forecasts and stable long-term expectations above the 3% target reinforce the implied probabilities, with peso depreciation and external factors cited as key upside risks to the disinflation path.
Regler
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/ Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario