- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?39¢39 %
- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?19¢19 %
- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?10¢10 %
- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?7¢7 %
- Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?3¢3 %
- 9 %38,5 %1470+58,6 t $ vol.
- 2 %19 %1480+29,3 t $ vol.
- 1 %9,5 %1490+29,4 t $ vol.
- 6,6 %1500+11,9 t $ vol.
- 2,8 %1510+8 t $ vol.
Moonshot AI released Kimi K3.1 Pro on October 23 as a post-trained 2.8T-parameter MoE model with 104B active parameters, a 1M-token context window, and multimodal capabilities, followed by full open weights on November 4. The model has posted strong early results in specialized arenas, including #8 on Code Arena WebDev and #1 among open models in Agent Arena after the weights drop, reflecting gains in coding, agentic workflows, and 3D tasks relative to its Kimi K3 predecessor. It trails leading proprietary systems such as Claude Opus 5.5 on broader benchmarks and remains absent from the main Text Arena leaderboard, where community blind evaluations and submissions typically accelerate once weights are public. The open release and cost-efficient API positioning ($2/$10 per million tokens) position it for faster adoption and ranking pressure in general text-to-text arenas.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".