- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
South Korea's National Intelligence Service has repeatedly assessed Kim Jong-un as active and without acute health crises, citing recent public appearances including military exhibitions and a border visit to China. North Korean state media has released photographs confirming his ongoing leadership role through late October and early November 2026, while the regime maintains established control mechanisms seen in prior dynastic transitions. Trader consensus at 98.2% for "No" reflects the absence of verifiable signs of removal, reinforced by tight internal security structures and succession preparations centered on Kim Ju-ae that do not indicate an immediate change. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome before December 31 include a sudden undisclosed medical emergency or rare internal power shift, though both remain low-probability events given current reporting and historical patterns of North Korean leadership continuity.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.