- Will Tesla deliver less than 400000 vehicles in Q4 20263¢3 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 400000 and 425000 vehicles in Q4 202614¢14 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 425000 and 450000 vehicles in Q4 202629¢29 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 450000 and 475000 vehicles in Q4 202624¢24 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q4 202618¢18 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 500000 and 525000 vehicles in Q4 202616¢16 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 525000 and 550000 vehicles in Q4 20263¢3 %
- Will Tesla deliver between 550000 and 575000 vehicles in Q4 20266¢6 %
- Will Tesla deliver 575000 or more vehicles in Q4 20265¢5 %
- 2,7 %<400k1,1 t $ vol.
- 11 %14,3 %400k to 425k1,2 t $ vol.
- 18 %29,3 %425k to 450k2 t $ vol.
- 10 %24 %450k to 475k2,8 t $ vol.
- 5 %18 %475k to 500k4,8 t $ vol.
- 1 %15,5 %500k to 525k2 t $ vol.
- 2,7 %525k to 550k4,6 t $ vol.
- 1 %6,4 %550k to 575k690,9 $ vol.
- 1 %5 %575k+1,1 t $ vol.
Tesla’s Q4 2026 delivery outlook centers on a modest sequential dip from the 486,532 vehicles delivered in Q3, with sell-side consensus clustering near 462,000–475,000. Recent October wholesale data from China showed a sharp month-over-month drop despite year-over-year gains, while European registrations posted strong rebounds that offset some U.S. softness following the prior-year tax-credit pull-forward. Battery-pack supply remains the primary production constraint, limiting any rapid ramp in Model 3/Y output that accounts for nearly all volume. Cybertruck contributions stay negligible ahead of the planned mid-2027 wind-down. Weekly registration trends and any pre-year-end production updates represent the key near-term signals that could shift trader positioning around the closely bunched 425k–500k bands.
Regler
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q4 2026. If Tesla does not publish Q4 2026 delivery figures by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.