- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?88¢88 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?74¢74 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?63¢63 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.10% before 2027?45¢45 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?41¢41 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?29¢29 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.80% before 2027?5¢5 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?5¢5 %
- 1 %88 %Below 5.25%10,1 t $ vol.
- 1 %74 %Below 5.20%30 t $ vol.
- 7 %62,5 %Below 5.15%34,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %44,5 %Below 5.10%35 t $ vol.
- 5 %40,5 %Below 5.05%33 t $ vol.
- 29 %Below 5.00%31,7 t $ vol.
- 12 %Below 4.95%22,9 t $ vol.
- 12 %Below 4.90%23,5 t $ vol.
- 8 %4,5 %Below 4.80%24,3 t $ vol.
- 4,6 %Below 4.60%31,4 t $ vol.
Recent developments in U.S. monetary policy and inflation have kept 30-year Treasury yields elevated near 5.26% as of November 9, 2026, well above year-ago levels around 4.74%. The Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, reinforced by updated dot-plot projections for higher-for-longer policy, along with sticky headline CPI driven by energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions, has anchored market-implied rate paths higher. Persistent fiscal deficits near 6% of GDP, heavy Treasury coupon issuance, and AI-related capital demand have also lifted term premiums. Traders are watching upcoming FOMC decisions, monthly CPI and employment data, and Treasury auction results for signals on whether yields can sustain declines toward recent lows or remain supported by growth and inflation dynamics through year-end.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).