- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 3.90% before 2027?6¢6 %
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?5¢5 %
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?6¢6 %
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?20¢20 %
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?41¢41 %
- Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?58¢58 %
- 2 %5,7 %Below 3.90%421,2 $ vol.
- 5 %Below 4.00%4,8 t $ vol.
- 6 %Below 4.10%2,7 t $ vol.
- 6 %20 %Below 4.20%2,5 t $ vol.
- 13 %41 %Below 4.30%4,9 t $ vol.
- 13 %58 %Below 4.40%3,7 t $ vol.
Recent resilience in U.S. economic data and persistent inflation have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path, keeping the 2-year Treasury yield near 4.46–4.58% as of early November 2026. The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00% in October, with the September SEP median projecting 4.1% through 2027 amid 3.7% headline CPI and core readings around 3.3%. Markets price limited near-term easing, as strong growth and labor conditions (unemployment near 4.1%) reduce odds of aggressive cuts before year-end. The December FOMC meeting and subsequent data releases on inflation and employment remain key catalysts that could shift the implied rate path and Treasury pricing.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).