- Will Xi and Takaichi not shake hands during the summit?15¢15 %
- Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the summit?6¢6 %
- Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the summit?44¢44 %
- Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the summit?21¢21 %
- Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the summit?10¢10 %
- Will the Xi and Takaichi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the summit?5¢5 %
- Will Xi and Takaichi only be photographed shaking hands during the summit?6¢6 %
- 15 %No Handshake123,5 $ vol.
- 5,5 %<2s605 $ vol.
- 43,5 %2–6s199 $ vol.
- 20,5 %6–10s741,4 $ vol.
- 9,5 %10–15s124,3 $ vol.
- 5,1 %15s+206,8 $ vol.
- 6 %Photographed only61,9 $ vol.
Japan seeks diplomatic assurances that Chinese President Xi Jinping will extend a standard greeting to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during ceremonial interactions at the November 18–19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, amid bilateral tensions at their lowest point since 1972 normalization. The friction stems primarily from Takaichi’s 2025 Taiwan remarks, which Beijing viewed as crossing a core-interest threshold and prompted export restrictions plus other pressure without prior de-escalation groundwork. A dedicated bilateral meeting remains unlikely, limiting any contact to formal program elements such as leader greetings or dinners. Traders price the 2–6 second range highest because protocol expectations favor at least a brief handshake while strained relations and absent warm-up diplomacy make prolonged or substantive engagement improbable; the 13.5% “No Handshake” probability reflects residual uncertainty over whether Beijing will adhere to customary host courtesies.
Regler
Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19, 2026, which will be hosted by Xi Jinping. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Xi Jinping and Sanae Takaichi during this summit. Any handshake recorded during the summit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Sanae Takaichi enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory. If no handshake occurs during the summit, or if Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (ET) of the summit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (ET) that Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.