- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?56¢56 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?53¢53 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?40¢40 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?6¢6 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.90% before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?4¢4 %
- 56,5 %5.40%4,5 t $ vol.
- 3 %52,5 %5.50%3,3 t $ vol.
- 6 %40 %5.60%1,6 t $ vol.
- 5 %12 %5.70%63,3 t $ vol.
- 2 %6 %5.80%50,4 t $ vol.
- 1 %4,3 %5.90%34,2 t $ vol.
- 2 %3,5 %6.00%55,7 t $ vol.
Recent Federal Reserve communications and persistent inflation above the 2% target have anchored elevated expectations for the 30-year Treasury yield, with the benchmark recently trading near 5.25% amid a September rate hike to the 3.75-4.00% funds range and projections for further tightening. Stronger economic data, including September CPI at 3.7%, combined with fiscal deficit concerns and Treasury supply needs, have supported higher long-end rates despite safe-haven demand that pulled yields off early-October peaks near 5.67%. Traders are focused on the upcoming October nonfarm payrolls report and subsequent FOMC meetings for signals on the policy path versus market-implied odds of additional hikes, as the yield curve steepens and historical precedents show long-term rates sensitive to sustained above-target inflation and debt dynamics through 2027.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).