- Will Adama Barrow win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?73¢73 %
- Will Ousainou Darboe win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?22¢22 %
- Will Bakary K. Badjie win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?4¢4 %
- Will Talib Ahmed Bensouda win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?1¢1 %
- Will Essa Faal win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mohamed Al Amin Bah win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Mama Kandeh win the 2026 Gambian presidential election?<1¢<1 %
1 %72,5 %Adama Barrow9,8 t $ vol.
1 %21,5 %Ousainou Darboe3,1 t $ vol.
4,2 %Bakary K. Badjie328,7 $ vol.
4 %1,1 %Talib Ahmed Bensouda1,8 t $ vol.
2 %0,7 %Essa Faal716,4 $ vol.
0,3 %Mohamed Al Amin Bah369 $ vol.
0,2 %Mama Kandeh980,5 $ vol.
Incumbent Adama Barrow leads trader pricing in the December 5, 2026 Gambian presidential election at 71.5 percent, reflecting incumbency advantages, coalition alliances with smaller parties, and a fragmented opposition field. Nominations opened November 3–14 with 27 aspirants filing, including Barrow’s NPP on November 10 and Ousainou Darboe’s UDP the day prior, while the voter register was finalized at 1.146 million. Recent August 2026 polling showed Barrow at 32 percent, Darboe at 25 percent and Talib Ahmed Bensouda at 19 percent with 17 percent undecided, underscoring a tighter race than 2021 but one where opposition splits across UDP-led and other coalitions limit any single challenger’s path. Lower pricing on Darboe (23 percent) and others such as Bakary K. Badjie, Bensouda and Essa Faal tracks their regional bases and limited national consolidation ahead of the campaign period and single-round vote.
Regler
Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in The Gambia on December 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2026 Gambian presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by the Independent Electoral Commission of The Gambia (https://www.iec.gm/).