- Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?2¢2 %
- Fed rate cut by January 2027 meeting?9¢9 %
- Fed rate cut by March 2027 meeting?12¢12 %
- Fed rate cut by April 2027 meeting?47¢47 %
- Fed rate cut by June 2027 meeting?30¢30 %
- Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?49¢49 %
- 1,6 %December 2026 Meeting457,6 t $ vol.
- 8,8 %January 2027 Meeting8,9 t $ vol.
- 1 %12 %March 2027 Meeting6,2 t $ vol.
- 3 %47 %April 2027 Meeting155,6 $ vol.
- 30 %June 2027 Meeting27,3 $ vol.
- 2 %49 %July 2027 Meeting161,8 $ vol.
Recent inflation readings above the Fed’s 2% target, including September CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core PCE near 3%, combined with resilient GDP growth and a stable labor market, have kept market-implied odds for near-term rate cuts near zero. The October 28 FOMC decision held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00%, with two dissents favoring a hike and forward guidance emphasizing the need for more data on persistent price pressures. Futures and prediction markets now price roughly 65% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the December 9 meeting and assign over 95% probability to no cuts at all in 2026. This path reflects the Fed’s updated median projection of a 4.1% policy rate by year-end and leaves the first 25-basis-point easing most likely around mid-2027.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2027, currently scheduled for July 27 to 28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.