- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 30M tonnes at end of November 2026?89¢89 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 31M tonnes at end of November 2026?82¢82 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of November 2026?80¢80 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 33M tonnes at end of November 2026?67¢67 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 34M tonnes at end of November 2026?56¢56 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 35M tonnes at end of November 2026?46¢46 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 36M tonnes at end of November 2026?50¢50 %
- Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 37M tonnes at end of November 2026?58¢58 %
- 89 %30M+2,3 t $ vol.
- 81,5 %31M+5,2 t $ vol.
- 1 %80 %32M+6,3 t $ vol.
- 3 %66,5 %33M+5,9 t $ vol.
- 55,5 %34M+10,4 t $ vol.
- 1 %45,5 %35M+4,2 t $ vol.
- 2 %49,5 %36M+1,5 t $ vol.
- 45 %58,4 %37M+6,5 t $ vol.
EU emergency diesel stocks face downward pressure from accelerated releases of strategic reserves, with eleven member states pledging 20.5 million barrels of diesel by January 2027 as part of a broader 42 million barrel draw coordinated under G7 and IEA commitments. These actions respond to tight refined-product markets, elevated diesel prices exceeding $200 per barrel earlier in 2026, and U.S. pressure on major holders like Germany and France, which account for roughly 35% of EU emergency gasoil and diesel inventories previously near 39 million metric tons. Eurostat’s November closing stock data, due shortly after month-end, will reflect ongoing draws amid persistent Middle East supply risks and seasonal winter demand, though EU rules mandate minimum 90-day import coverage.
Regler
On October 1, 2026, Reuters reported that the United States had told France and Germany to release emergency diesel stocks or face a potential US diesel export ban, as Washington presses European countries to draw down their reserves to ease surging diesel prices. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-tells-france-germany-release-diesel-stocks-or-face-us-export-ban-sources-say-2026-10-01/ This market will resolve to “Yes” if Eurostat publishes a figure for the European Union’s closing stock of EU emergency stocks of gas oil and diesel oil for the month of November 2026 that is greater than or equal to the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant figure is the value in Eurostat’s “Oil products stock levels - monthly data” dataset (nrg_stk_oilm) for: Geopolitical entity “European Union - 27 countries (from 2020)”; Standard international energy product classification “Gas oil and diesel oil”; Stock or flow “Closing stock - EU emergency”; Unit “Thousand tonnes”; Time “2026-11”. This market will resolve as soon as Eurostat first publishes a figure for November 2026. Revisions to that figure published afterward will not be considered unless in the case of obvious data integrity issues. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data. Values will count regardless of any status flag (e.g. estimated, provisional). The figure will be used as published, without rounding. If Eurostat becomes permanently unavailable or has not published a qualifying figure for November 2026 by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the latest data available. The primary resolution source for this market will be Eurostat, specifically the nrg_stk_oilm dataset at https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/nrg_stk_oilm__custom_22993801/default/table. If the dataset is discontinued or restructured, the equivalent successor series published by Eurostat will be used. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes values in thousands of tonnes (e.g. 35M tonnes = 35,000 thousand tonnes). Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market. Note: Eurostat publishes monthly emergency oil stock data with a delay. The European Union aggregate is generally published approximately three months after the end of the reference month, once all Member States have reported (for example, data for June 2026 was the latest available as of October 1, 2026). Data for November 2026 is therefore expected to be published around late February or March 2027, and this market will remain unresolved until the publication of qualifying data.