- Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?2¢2 %
- Will the ECB decrease the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?1¢1 %
- Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the February meeting?83¢83 %
- Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 25 bps at the February meeting?15¢15 %
- Will the ECB increase the deposit facility rate by 50+ bps at the February meeting?1¢1 %
- 2 %2 %50+ bps decrease2 t $ vol.
- 2 %1,5 %25 bps decrease2,4 t $ vol.
- 4 %83 %No Change4,6 t $ vol.
- 15 %25 bps increase1,4 t $ vol.
- 3 %1,1 %50+ bps increase1,7 t $ vol.
The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate stands at 2.50% following the September 2026 hike, with the October meeting resulting in a hold amid rising energy prices from Middle East tensions and inflation remaining above target. Professional forecasters and market pricing from €STR futures point to a widely anticipated 25-basis-point increase at the December 17, 2026 meeting, lifting the rate to 2.75%, after which surveys show a median expectation of an extended pause through 2027. Incoming data on inflation, wages, and growth, combined with the ECB’s data-dependent stance and lack of significant second-round effects so far, underpin the 86% trader consensus on no further change by the February 4, 2027 meeting. Limited probabilities for additional tightening or easing reflect uncertainty over energy pass-through and economic resilience.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the February 2027 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its February 2027 meeting, scheduled for February 3 and February 4, 2027, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's February 2027 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.