- Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $5B and $8B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $8B and $11B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $11B and $14B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $14B and $17B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be between $17B and $20B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?3¢3 %
- Will Discord’s market cap be $20B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?76¢76 %
- 2,2 %<5B19,3 t $ vol.
- 2,2 %5–8B5,9 t $ vol.
- 2 %3,8 %8–11B23,3 t $ vol.
- 1 %4,4 %11–14B28,7 t $ vol.
- 4,2 %14–17B4,9 t $ vol.
- 1 %3,2 %17–20B6,3 t $ vol.
- 3,9 %20B+6,1 t $ vol.
- 8 %76,4 %No IPO by December 31, 2027110,7 t $ vol.
Discord's prolonged IPO delay following its confidential S-1 filing in January 2026 with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, combined with a missed March 2026 target and absence of a public registration statement, underpins the 76.3% market-implied probability of no listing by December 31, 2027. Secondary-market prices have reset to roughly $8.5–10 billion, well below the 2021 peak of $15 billion, reflecting investor caution amid softer conditions for consumer platforms. The company reports over 200 million monthly users and approximately $600 million in annualized revenue, yet monetization through subscriptions and ads has not yet supported a faster path to public markets. Traders appear to price in extended SEC review timelines and the option for Discord to forgo a listing altogether unless valuations stabilize or macro conditions improve.
Regler
This market will resolve based on Discord's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no such IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.