- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?5¢5 %
- No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?95¢95 %
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- 1 %0,8 %50+ bps decrease944,7 $ vol.
- 16 %4,5 %25 bps decrease6,4 t $ vol.
- 23 %95 %No change10 t $ vol.
- 3 %0,5 %25 bps increase1,4 t $ vol.
- 1 %0,5 %50+ bps increase942,2 $ vol.
Banxico’s explicit guidance for an extended hold after its surprise 25-basis-point cut to 6.25% on November 5 underpins the 92% market-implied probability of no change at the December meeting. The board described the move as a one-time adjustment amid persistent economic slack, limited demand pressures, and inflation still projected to reach the 3% target only in late 2027, despite a recent uptick in headline inflation to 3.62%. Analyst surveys had previously anticipated rates remaining at 6.50% through 2027. The split 3-2 vote and upward revisions to near-term inflation forecasts reinforce caution. A sharper inflation rebound or external shocks that weaken the peso could still shift expectations toward further easing.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.