- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 6?1¢1 %
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 8?2¢2 %
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 15?21¢21 %
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 22?71¢71 %
- Will the AP call the Alaska Senate race by November 30?96¢96 %
- 1,3 %November 6536,2 $ vol.
- 2 %2,4 %November 84,6 t $ vol.
- 10 %20,5 %November 15585,8 $ vol.
- 2 %70,5 %November 2253,1 $ vol.
- 25 %95,5 %November 30693,7 $ vol.
The 2026 Alaska U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola remains extremely close after November 3 voting, with Peltola holding a 0.3-point lead at 48.2% to 47.9% after 74% of ballots are counted. Minor candidates Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. together account for roughly 4%, keeping both major-party candidates below 50% and likely triggering ranked-choice voting tabulation. Lead changes occurred as precincts reported, and remaining ballots from rural areas continue to arrive. The Associated Press typically withholds a call in such narrow contests until vote totals stabilize and any ranked-choice process clarifies a majority winner. Traders monitoring this market focus on daily counting updates and procedural timelines that determine when sufficient certainty exists for a formal declaration.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Associated Press (AP) calls the winner of the 2026 United States Senate general election in Alaska between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A call refers to the AP publicly declaring a winner of the race. A call for any candidate will qualify. Calls, projections, or declarations by any other news organization, or certification of results by the State of Alaska, will not qualify. A call made within the specified window will qualify even if it is later retracted. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.