- Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?95¢95 %
- Will Bill Hill win the AK-AL House seat?4¢4 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the AK-AL House seat?<1¢<1 %
- Will Jim McDermott win the AK-AL House seat?<1¢<1 %
- 1 %95,5 %Republican Party63,3 t $ vol.
4,5 %Bill Hill33,8 t $ vol.
Republican incumbent Nick Begich holds a commanding first-choice lead in Alaska’s November 3 at-large House election, with preliminary tallies showing roughly 49.5% compared to independent Bill Hill’s 40%, Democrat Eric Hafner’s 7%, and Libertarian Jim McDermott’s 2.7%. Begich’s position reflects incumbency advantage, stronger fundraising, and voter consolidation patterns under ranked-choice voting, where lower-ballot support is expected to flow toward the top two contenders. Remaining absentee ballots and the scheduled November 18 RCV tabulation introduce limited uncertainty, though current margins make a reversal unlikely. Traders price the Republican outcome at 94% in recognition of these structural and vote-share realities.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to represent any party for purposes of this market, regardless of any subsequent caucus decision. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).