- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?66¢66 %
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?18¢18 %
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?13¢13 %
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?3¢3 %
- Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will SpaceX be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Broadcom be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
13 %66 %Microsoft33 t $ vol.
4 %17,5 %Alphabet47,5 t $ vol.
7 %13,1 %NVIDIA20,8 t $ vol.
1 %2,9 %Apple25,7 t $ vol.
1 %2,2 %Amazon8,6 t $ vol.
0,7 %SpaceX13,6 t $ vol.
Microsoft's leading 65% implied probability for third-largest market cap by end-2026 stems from its recent Azure cloud revenue surge of 48% year-over-year, beating expectations, alongside strong AI infrastructure demand and post-election investor enthusiasm for cloud computing. This positions the company ahead of NVIDIA (17.2%), whose stock has shown volatility amid semiconductor cycles, and Alphabet (12.5%), which trails in cloud momentum. With only weeks until resolution and current rankings showing Microsoft at roughly $4.1 trillion behind Apple and NVIDIA, sustained large language model adoption and enterprise AI spending reinforce trader consensus around Microsoft's edge, though near-term hardware or regulatory shifts could still influence final standings.
Regler
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.